A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
